Robert Shiller on housing: Don't trust momentum

The man responsible for the Case/Schiller index gives his analysis of the real estate market. 

  A striking surge in home prices this fall was not enough to convince one of the nation's top housing economists that the recovery is on solid ground.
"We can't trust momentum in the housing market anymore," Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller said on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
Why not? Investors, specifically institutional investors, have vast sums of cash. They have bought about 100,000 homes, most of them previously foreclosed properties. They bought the homes in a limited number of markets, mostly in the West, pushing prices dramatically higher as competition for the properties increased. They are now renting them, and even selling bonds backed by the rental streams.

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Average Fixed 30 Year Mortgage at 4.13%

Here's part

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US building permits surge in October to highest since 2008

CNBC has the story. 

Permits for future U.S. home construction rose to their highest level in nearly 5-1/2 years in October, suggesting the housing market recovery remained intact despite recent signs of slowing down.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday building permits jumped 6.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.03 million units. That was the highest rate since June 2008. Permits increased 5.2 percent in September.
August's permits were revised to a 926,000-unit pace from the previously reported 918,000 units. Permits lead housing starts by at least a month.

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US rejects Fairholme's proposal to recapitalize Fannie, Freddie

CNBC has the story.

The United States rejected Fairholme Capital Management's recapitalization proposal of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saying the only way to revamp the home loan market is through proper housing finance reform, according to Gene Sperling, a senior adviser to the president.
Last week, Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme said it wants to buy the mortgage-backed securities insurance businesses of Fannie and Freddie by bringing in $52 billion in new capital, in a bid to resolve the uncertain future of the mortgage financiers by freeing them from U.S. government control.

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Mortgage Applications Down Again

CNBC speculates that this may be the time to buy. 

Applications for U.S. home loans fell in the latest week, dropping for a third straight week, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 2.3 percent in the week ended Nov. 15. That number reflects an adjustment for the Veteran's Day holiday, the MBA said. On an unadjusted basis, the index fell 13 percent.

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Big retail-apartment project near Chicago's Lincoln Park lands $182 million loan

Here's the details. 

Left in limbo after the real estate market cratered, the $260 million New City development near Lincoln Park has crossed two critical thresholds, signing another anchor tenant and landing a $182 million construction loan.

A development venture led by Chicago-based firms Structured Development LLC and Bucksbaum Retail Properties LLC secured the loan commitment from BMO Harris Bank N.A. and Fifth Third Bancorp. in part because they persuaded Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. to lease about 59,000 square feet, said Structured Principal J. Michael Drew.

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BLS Numbers in Question

This story from the New York Post will have serious reverberations. 

In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.
The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.
And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.

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Have high-rise apartment rents peaked?

Crain's Chicago Business has the analysis on Chicago's high rise apartment market. 

Downtown apartment owners have been bracing for increased competition from a building boom that will add about 5,000 units to the market this year and next. But new data show they have an additional and more immediate problem: Demand is slowing exactly when landlords need it to pick up.
The overall downtown apartment occupancy rate dropped to 92.6 percent in the third quarter, down from 95.3 percent a year earlier and the lowest rate since the end of 2009, according to a report by Appraisal Research Counselors, a Chicago-based consulting firm.

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The Housing Market’s Big Impact On Today’s Rental Market

Here's some interesting analysis. 

According to the US Census Bureau, the population of the United States grew by more than 4% from 2006 to 2011. However for that same period, there was only about 3% growth in the number of overall households. And while there was only about 2% growth in family households, non-family households grew at nearly 5%, which means more people are living with roommates who are non-relatives. Some of this accounts for the recent growth in the rental market. With the economic and housing crises over the past half decade, fewer people can afford to own their own homes, so the pressure is building on the rental market.
Rental Vacancy Rates DeclineAccording to a report on rental housing market conditions conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, average rental vacancy rates declined in the US from 8.4% in 2009 to 7.4% in 2011. Nearly four times as many metropolitan areas saw declines in vacancy rates than those that experienced increases. Rental households increased from 34.1% in 2009 to 35.4% in 2011. One in four metropolitan areas saw a rise in rentals while less than 3% saw declines.

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Fewer homes repossessed by lenders in October

Here's the story from CNBC.

Fewer U.S. homes are completing the foreclosure process and ending up repossessed by banks because investors are increasingly buying up properties when they go on sale at public auction.
The trend reflects a growing appetite among investors for buying homes before they exit the foreclosure process and end up on the market.
Some 37,775 homes nationwide completed the foreclosure process in October, down 1 percent from the previous month and a decline of 29 percent versus October last year, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac. said Thursday.

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Landmark Chicago Burger Joint is Staying

The Billy Goat, known for the Saturday Night Live skits starring John Belushi, isn't going to have to move after all.

 Billy Goat Tavern won't be moving or closing, even if a planned redevelopment of its property goes through, the Sianis family said in a statement Thursday morning. 

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"The Realtor Building has been keeping us in the loop since discussions began with us over a month ago, and have assured us that The Billy Goat Tavern will not leave or close its doors on Michigan Avenue if or when the proposed redevelopment happens," the statement reads, referring to reports that a redevelopment of the 430 N. Michigan Avenue property could displace the bar, which has been open for more than 50 years.
The statement says the family has no knowledge of the details of the proposed development, and said it is seeking to correct "misinformation" in "the last few days" that reported the tavern would be temporarily displaced.

Read more at http://www.redeyechicago.com/news/redeye-billy-goat-tavern-releases-statement-says-it-is-staying-put-20131114,0,6368968.story#sbIvKBqlS5ydREYm.99

"The Realtor Building has been keeping us in the loop since discussions began with us over a month ago, and have assured us that The Billy Goat Tavern will not leave or close its doors on Michigan Avenue if or when the proposed redevelopment happens," the statement reads, referring to reports that a redevelopment of the 430 N. Michigan Avenue property could displace the bar, which has been open for more than 50 years.
The statement says the family has no knowledge of the details of the proposed development, and said it is seeking to correct "misinformation" in "the last few days" that reported the tavern would be temporarily displaced.

Read more at http://www.redeyechicago.com/news/redeye-billy-goat-tavern-releases-statement-says-it-is-staying-put-20131114,0,6368968.story#sbIvKBqlS5ydREYm.99

Chicago Investment Property List

Check out the list here. 

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