Robert Shiller on housing: Don't trust momentum

The man responsible for the Case/Schiller index gives his analysis of the real estate market. 

  A striking surge in home prices this fall was not enough to convince one of the nation's top housing economists that the recovery is on solid ground.
"We can't trust momentum in the housing market anymore," Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller said on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
Why not? Investors, specifically institutional investors, have vast sums of cash. They have bought about 100,000 homes, most of them previously foreclosed properties. They bought the homes in a limited number of markets, mostly in the West, pushing prices dramatically higher as competition for the properties increased. They are now renting them, and even selling bonds backed by the rental streams.

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Average Fixed 30 Year Mortgage at 4.13%

Here's part

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US building permits surge in October to highest since 2008

CNBC has the story. 

Permits for future U.S. home construction rose to their highest level in nearly 5-1/2 years in October, suggesting the housing market recovery remained intact despite recent signs of slowing down.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday building permits jumped 6.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.03 million units. That was the highest rate since June 2008. Permits increased 5.2 percent in September.
August's permits were revised to a 926,000-unit pace from the previously reported 918,000 units. Permits lead housing starts by at least a month.

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US rejects Fairholme's proposal to recapitalize Fannie, Freddie

CNBC has the story.

The United States rejected Fairholme Capital Management's recapitalization proposal of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saying the only way to revamp the home loan market is through proper housing finance reform, according to Gene Sperling, a senior adviser to the president.
Last week, Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme said it wants to buy the mortgage-backed securities insurance businesses of Fannie and Freddie by bringing in $52 billion in new capital, in a bid to resolve the uncertain future of the mortgage financiers by freeing them from U.S. government control.

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Mortgage Applications Down Again

CNBC speculates that this may be the time to buy. 

Applications for U.S. home loans fell in the latest week, dropping for a third straight week, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 2.3 percent in the week ended Nov. 15. That number reflects an adjustment for the Veteran's Day holiday, the MBA said. On an unadjusted basis, the index fell 13 percent.

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Big retail-apartment project near Chicago's Lincoln Park lands $182 million loan

Here's the details. 

Left in limbo after the real estate market cratered, the $260 million New City development near Lincoln Park has crossed two critical thresholds, signing another anchor tenant and landing a $182 million construction loan.

A development venture led by Chicago-based firms Structured Development LLC and Bucksbaum Retail Properties LLC secured the loan commitment from BMO Harris Bank N.A. and Fifth Third Bancorp. in part because they persuaded Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. to lease about 59,000 square feet, said Structured Principal J. Michael Drew.

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BLS Numbers in Question

This story from the New York Post will have serious reverberations. 

In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.
The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.
And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.

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